- Bib ID:
- 3287491
- Format:
- Book and Microform
- Author:
- Wu, Da-Ching
- Description:
- 149 p.
- Summary:
-
A two-stage hierarchical forecasting scheme is proposed. The first stage is to fit the demographic models of Coale, Hernes, Keeley and Gompertz to Australian first nuptial birth frequency data (or first marriage frequency data). All four models have functions of three parameters. The estimated parameters obtained from fitting any of these models to the above data for each period (of cohort) form a multivariate time series. The second stage is to find a joint estimate for these parameter series. The final model is used to forecast future parameter values, which are then substituted back into the equation to obtain the first nuptial birth (or first marriage) frequency. We use the Tiao and Box approach on the multivariate time series to model the estimated parameter series obtained from fitting the Gompertz model to the Australian first nuptial birth frequency. The final model has a simple behavioral explanation and has a good forecasting result.
The forecasting results are further improved by including the information on first marriages to form a transfer function model composed of six time series.
- Notes:
-
- (UnM)AAI8400081
- Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 44-09, Section: B, page: 2813.
- Thesis (Ph.D.)--Carnegie Mellon University, 1983.
- Reproduction:
- Microfiche. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University Microfilms International.
- Subject:
- Statistics
- Other authors/contributors:
- Carnegie Mellon University
- Copyright:
-
In Copyright
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Copyright status was determined using the following information:
- Material type:
- Literary Dramatic Musical
- Published status:
- Unpublished
- Creation date:
- 1983
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