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Quantifying "Dog Days" / J.A. Giesecke, J.M. Dixon, P.B. Dixon and M.T. Rimmer
Bib ID 6806622
Format BookBook, OnlineOnline [text, still image, volume]
Author
Giesecke, James, author
 
Online Versions
Description Melbourne : Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, July 2014 
41 pages : illustrations ; 30 cm. 
ISBN 9781921654534
Series

Centre of Policy Studies working paper ; no. G-246. 1031-9034

Summary

"In his recent book "Dog Days", Garnaut (2013) argues that the Australian economy faces significant economic challenges, with a risk that just as the investment phase of the mining boom ends, Australia will be entering an economic environment characterised by declining terms of trade, a rising dependency ratio and rising world interest rates. In this paper, we evaluate the consequences of these challenges for key macroeconomic variables and per-capita measures of economic wellbeing using an economy-wide model. With plausible assumptions on key inputs to our model, we produce a scenario that is broadly consistent with the pessimistic picture for the immediate future of the Australian economy as portrayed in Dog Days. We forecast real per-capita incomes to fall at a rate of 0.3% p.a., so that by 2019/20 they have returned to the level of 2010/11. To maintain an unchanged unemployment rate over the forecast period, the average real wage must fall by 0.89% p.a., returning to its 2007/08 level by 2019/20. Fiscal consolidation sees damped growth in consumption. With real aggregate per-capita consumption falling at -079% p.a., it returns to its 2008/09 level by 2019/20."

Notes

Title from cover.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 40-41)

Also available online. Address as at 14/2/15: http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-246.htm

Subjects Mineral industries -- Australia -- Economic aspects.  |  Mineral industries -- Government policy -- Australia.  |  Economic forecasting -- Australia.  |  Australia -- Economic conditions -- 2001-  |  Australia -- Economic policy -- 2001-  |  Australia -- Foreign economic relations -- 21st century.  |  Australian
Other authors/contributors Dixon, J.M., author  |  Dixon, Peter B., author  |  Rimmer, Maureen, author  |  Victoria University (Melbourne, Vic.). Centre of Policy Studies, issuing body

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