Quantifying "Dog Days" / J.A. Giesecke, J.M. Dixon, P.B. Dixon and M.T. Rimmer
- Bib ID:
- 6806622
- Format:
- Book
- Author:
- Giesecke, James, author
- Online Version:
- http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-246.htm
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- Description:
-
- Melbourne : Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, July 2014
- 41 pages : illustrations ; 30 cm.
- ISBN:
- 9781921654534
- Series:
- Centre of Policy Studies working paper ; no. G-246. 1031-9034
- Summary:
-
"In his recent book "Dog Days", Garnaut (2013) argues that the Australian economy faces significant economic challenges, with a risk that just as the investment phase of the mining boom ends, Australia will be entering an economic environment characterised by declining terms of trade, a rising dependency ratio and rising world interest rates. In this paper, we evaluate the consequences of these challenges for key macroeconomic variables and per-capita measures of economic wellbeing using an economy-wide model. With plausible assumptions on key inputs to our model, we produce a scenario that is broadly consistent with the pessimistic picture for the immediate future of the Australian economy as portrayed in Dog Days. We forecast real per-capita incomes to fall at a rate of 0.3% p.a., so that by 2019/20 they have returned to the level of 2010/11. To maintain an unchanged unemployment rate over the forecast period, the average real wage must fall by 0.89% p.a., returning to its 2007/08 level by 2019/20. Fiscal consolidation sees damped growth in consumption. With real aggregate per-capita consumption falling at -079% p.a., it returns to its 2008/09 level by 2019/20."
- Notes:
-
- Title from cover.
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 40-41)
- Also available online. Address as at 14/2/15: http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-246.htm
- Subject:
- Other authors/contributors:
- Copyright:
-
In Copyright
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Copyright status was determined using the following information:
- Material type:
- Literary Dramatic Musical
- Published status:
- Published
- Publication date:
- 2014
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